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New York City II vs Philadelphia Union II — MLS Next Pro 2022

New York City II
New York City II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
9/3/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 34Belson Stadium at St John's University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

New York City II42%
×Draw22%
Philadelphia Union II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York City II
1.88
Philadelphia Union II
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 56 away

creates per match

New York City II
2.15
Philadelphia Union II
1.95

allows per match

New York City II
1.54
Philadelphia Union II
1.61

finishing

New York City II+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York City II ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

New York City II or draw
64%
New York City II or Philadelphia Union II
78%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
58%

Winning margin

New York City II wins by 2+
22%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

New York City II 1+ goals
85%
New York City II 2+ goals
56%
New York City II 3+ goals
29%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
83%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
52%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

New York City II (draw refunded)
53%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York City II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York City II attack 2.15 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.88

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + New York City II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

New York City II scores more
42%
level
22%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
36%

New York City II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "New York City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: New York City II 2–0 Philadelphia Union II

New York City II beat Philadelphia Union II 2-0 in MLS Next Pro on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Belson Stadium at St John's University in Queens, New York.