FC Midtjylland 2–0 Brondby: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brondby

M. Pusic 65'

R. Hassan 42'

4/3/2016

Superliga · Round 23MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

FC Midtjylland41%

×Draw24%

Brondby35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchBrondby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.45

FC Midtjylland

1.61

Brondby

1.45

FC Midtjylland creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

1.74

creates per match

1.59

1.30

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

1.74

Brondby

1.59

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.30

Brondby

1.49

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.63scores more

Brondby+0.08on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Brondby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

65%

FC Midtjylland or Brondby

76%

Draw or Brondby

59%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

21%

Brondby wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

80%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

48%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

22%

Brondby 1+ goals

77%

Brondby 2+ goals

42%

Brondby 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

55%

Brondby (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

Brondby away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.49 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.74 + Brondby defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Brondby attack 1.59 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

41%

level

24%

Brondby scores more

35%

FC Midtjylland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

R. Hassan

46'

T. Kahlenberg← A. Hjulsager

65'

M. Pusic

67'

J. Juelsgård← D. Agger

71'

75'

79'

86'

FC

Brondby

16

Toppel

22

▼

5

13

17

8

21

▼

Hjulsager

18

▼

25

11

9

31

4

2

70

28

7

3

36

⚽

▼

Hassan

17

Olsson

27

▼

Sisto

10

⚽

▼

Pusic

75'▲D. Royer←▼R. Hassan

79'▲P. Onuachu←▼P. Sisto

86'▲M. Duelund←▼M. Pusic

FC Midtjylland substitutes

77Royer33Onuachu22Duelund11Ureña26Banggaard25Wolański43Kristensen

46'▲T. Kahlenberg←▼A. Hjulsager

67'▲J. Juelsgård←▼D. Agger

71'▲K. Wilczek←▼L. Phiri

Brondby substitutes

7Kahlenberg2Juelsgård20Wilczek10Eriksson12Holst19Nørgaard30Hansen