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IA Akranes vs FH hafnarfjordur — Úrvalsdeild 2026

IA Akranes
IA Akranes
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
FH hafnarfjordur
FH hafnarfjordur
T. Haraldsson 33', 28'
S. Lennon 78', 35', 15'
K. Finnbogason 66'
4/30/2017ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 1Norðurálsvöllurinn (Akranes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

IA Akranes43%
×Draw23%
FH hafnarfjordur34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IA Akranes
1.79
FH hafnarfjordur
1.58

IA Akranes creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 99 away

creates per match

IA Akranes
1.69
FH hafnarfjordur
1.48

allows per match

IA Akranes
1.69
FH hafnarfjordur
1.90

finishing

IA Akranes+0.00on par
FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IA Akranes ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

IA Akranes or draw
66%
IA Akranes or FH hafnarfjordur
77%
Draw or FH hafnarfjordur
57%

Winning margin

IA Akranes wins by 2+
23%
FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

IA Akranes 1+ goals
83%
IA Akranes 2+ goals
53%
IA Akranes 3+ goals
26%
FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals
79%
FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals
47%
FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

IA Akranes (draw refunded)
56%
FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IA Akranes at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.90 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IA Akranes attack 1.69 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.48 + IA Akranes defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IA Akranes scores more
43%
level
23%
FH hafnarfjordur scores more
34%

IA Akranes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IA Akranes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
S. Lennon
28'
T. Haraldsson
33'
T. Haraldsson
35'
S. Lennon
66'
S. Þorsteinsson← P. Stefański
66'
K. Finnbogason
72'
A. Guðnason← Þ. Valdimarsson
72'
A. Björnsson← H. Björnsson
78'
S. Lennon
79'
G. Gunnlaugsson← A. Hafsteinsson
87'
S. Þórðarson← T. Thórdarson
87'
Guðmundur Karl Guðmundsson← S. Lennon

Úrvalsdeild: IA Akranes 2–4 FH hafnarfjordur

FH hafnarfjordur beat IA Akranes 4-2 in Úrvalsdeild on April 30, 2017.

Goals: S. Lennon (15', 35', 78'), T. Haraldsson (28', 33'), K. Finnbogason (66').

The match was played at Norðurálsvöllurinn (Akranes).