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New Mexico United vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

New Mexico United
New Mexico United
Preview
01:30
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
9/12/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageRio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park
48%
New Mexico United
model favours
48%24%27%

New Mexico United are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

New Mexico United48%
×Draw24%
Indy Eleven27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Mexico United
1.64
Indy Eleven
1.17

New Mexico United creates 40% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 130 away

creates per match

New Mexico United
1.70
Indy Eleven
1.12

allows per match

New Mexico United
1.21
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

New Mexico United+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Mexico United ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

New Mexico United or draw
73%
New Mexico United or Indy Eleven
76%
Draw or Indy Eleven
52%

Winning margin

New Mexico United wins by 2+
25%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

New Mexico United 1+ goals
81%
New Mexico United 2+ goals
49%
New Mexico United 3+ goals
23%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
69%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
33%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

New Mexico United (draw refunded)
64%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Mexico United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Mexico United attack 1.70 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.64

Indy Eleven attack 1.12 + New Mexico United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

New Mexico United scores more
48%
level
24%
Indy Eleven scores more
27%

New Mexico United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "New Mexico United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 65% of Indy Eleven’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • New Mexico United have won 3 in a row
  • Indy Eleven score first in only 28% of matches
  • New Mexico United have won 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • New Mexico United have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
United
WWWDW
Eleven
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: New Mexico United host Indy Eleven

September 12, 2026: New Mexico United take on Indy Eleven in USL Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

New Mexico United host Indy Eleven at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.