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New Mexico United II vs Colorado ISA — USL League Two 2018

New Mexico United II
New Mexico United II
FT
2 – 2
Colorado ISA
Colorado ISA
5/27/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 14New Mexico United Training Facility

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

New Mexico United II66%
×Draw18%
Colorado ISA16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Mexico United II
2.48
Colorado ISA
1.15

New Mexico United II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

creates per match

New Mexico United II
1.69
Colorado ISA
0.86

allows per match

New Mexico United II
1.44
Colorado ISA
3.28

finishing

New Mexico United II+0.00on par
Colorado ISA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Mexico United II ↓

Colorado ISA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

New Mexico United II or draw
84%
New Mexico United II or Colorado ISA
82%
Draw or Colorado ISA
34%

Winning margin

New Mexico United II wins by 2+
44%
Colorado ISA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

New Mexico United II 1+ goals
92%
New Mexico United II 2+ goals
70%
New Mexico United II 3+ goals
44%
Colorado ISA 1+ goals
68%
Colorado ISA 2+ goals
32%
Colorado ISA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

New Mexico United II (draw refunded)
80%
Colorado ISA (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Mexico United II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Colorado ISA away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Mexico United II attack 1.69 + Colorado ISA defence 3.28 → ÷2 → 2.48

Colorado ISA attack 0.86 + New Mexico United II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

New Mexico United II scores more
66%
level
18%
Colorado ISA scores more
16%

New Mexico United II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "New Mexico United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: New Mexico United II 2–2 Colorado ISA

New Mexico United II and Colorado ISA drew 2-2 in USL League Two on May 27, 2022.

The match was played at New Mexico United Training Facility in Albuquerque, New Mexico.