New England Revolution 4–0 CF Montreal

New England Revolution

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

CF Montreal

G. Vrioni 86'

B. Wood 50'

Carles Gil 45+4' (pen)

D. Borrero 21'

4/8/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 10Gillette Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

New England Revolution42%

×Draw26%

CF Montreal32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New England RevolutionExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.24

New England Revolution

1.45

CF Montreal

1.24

New England Revolution creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.17

creates per match

1.34

1.14

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

New England Revolution

1.17

CF Montreal

1.34

allows per match

New England Revolution

1.14

CF Montreal

1.73

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

New England Revolution+0.40scores more

CF Montreal+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New England Revolution ↓

CF Montreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

New England Revolution or draw

68%

New England Revolution or CF Montreal

74%

Draw or CF Montreal

58%

Winning margin

New England Revolution wins by 2+

20%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

New England Revolution 1+ goals

77%

New England Revolution 2+ goals

42%

New England Revolution 3+ goals

18%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

71%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

35%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

New England Revolution (draw refunded)

56%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New England Revolution at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.73 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New England Revolution attack 1.17 + CF Montreal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

CF Montreal attack 1.34 + New England Revolution defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

New England Revolution scores more

42%

level

26%

CF Montreal scores more

32%

New England Revolution at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "New England Revolution will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Borrero

New England Revolution · M

8.2

Match Events

21'

D. Borrero↳ G. Bou

26'

Kamal Miller

45+3'

Bobby WoodPenalty confirmed

45'

Gabriele Corbo

45+4'

Carles GilPenalty

46'

A. Farrell← H. Kessler

46'

S. Ibrahim← R. Quioto

46'

Z. Brault-Guillard← G. Corbo

46'

S. Rea← N. Saliba

50'

54'

62'

62'

67'

72'

J. Altidore← Carles Gil

74'

Ahmed Hamdi← C. Of

80'

J. Panayotou← D. Borrero

86'

G. Vrioni↳ Đ. Petrović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewCF

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots9

2.16Expected Goals (xG)0.58

6Corners2

7Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots9

9On Target3

7Off Target3

3Blocked3

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

569Total Passes406

479Accurate Passes317

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0