Neumarkt 4–1 Golling: Result & Stats

Neumarkt

FT

4 – 1

Golling

10/3/2020

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 8Sportplatz Neumarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Neumarkt50%

×Draw21%

Golling29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeumarktExpected goals in this matchGolling

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.61

Neumarkt

2.15

Golling

1.61

Neumarkt creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 56 away

1.99

creates per match

1.50

1.72

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Neumarkt

1.99

Golling

1.50

allows per match

Neumarkt

1.72

Golling

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neumarkt+0.00on par

Golling+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neumarkt ↓

Golling →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Neumarkt or draw

71%

Neumarkt or Golling

79%

Draw or Golling

50%

Winning margin

Neumarkt wins by 2+

29%

Golling wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Neumarkt 1+ goals

88%

Neumarkt 2+ goals

63%

Neumarkt 3+ goals

36%

Golling 1+ goals

80%

Golling 2+ goals

48%

Golling 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Neumarkt (draw refunded)

63%

Golling (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neumarkt at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Golling away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neumarkt attack 1.99 + Golling defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.15

Golling attack 1.50 + Neumarkt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Neumarkt scores more

50%

level

21%

Golling scores more

29%

Neumarkt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff