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Neudrossenfeld vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Neudrossenfeld
Neudrossenfeld
Preview
12:00
Weiden
Weiden
5/22/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 34
45%
Neudrossenfeld
model favours
45%24%31%

Neudrossenfeld have won 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Neudrossenfeld45%
×Draw24%
Weiden31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neudrossenfeld
1.67
Weiden
1.33

Neudrossenfeld creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

creates per match

Neudrossenfeld
1.57
Weiden
1.32

allows per match

Neudrossenfeld
1.33
Weiden
1.76

finishing

Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neudrossenfeld ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Neudrossenfeld or draw
69%
Neudrossenfeld or Weiden
76%
Draw or Weiden
55%

Winning margin

Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+
24%
Weiden wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals
81%
Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals
50%
Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals
23%
Weiden 1+ goals
74%
Weiden 2+ goals
38%
Weiden 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)
60%
Weiden (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neudrossenfeld at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.57 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

Weiden attack 1.32 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Neudrossenfeld scores more
45%
level
24%
Weiden scores more
31%

Neudrossenfeld at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Neudrossenfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Neudrossenfeld
LDLLW
Weiden
LWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neudrossenfeld face Weiden (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Neudrossenfeld hosting Weiden. Match starts May 22, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.