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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau — Challenge League 2026

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Preview
16:00
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
10/31/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 12
Big match
48%
Neuchatel Xamax FC
model favours
48%22%30%

Neuchatel Xamax FC score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC48%
×Draw22%
FC Aarau30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.94
FC Aarau
1.48

Neuchatel Xamax FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 62 away

creates per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.82
FC Aarau
1.56

allows per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.41
FC Aarau
2.06

finishing

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par
FC Aarau+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchatel Xamax FC ↓

FC Aarau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw
70%
Neuchatel Xamax FC or FC Aarau
78%
Draw or FC Aarau
52%

Winning margin

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
27%
FC Aarau wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
86%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
58%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
30%
FC Aarau 1+ goals
77%
FC Aarau 2+ goals
43%
FC Aarau 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
62%
FC Aarau (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

FC Aarau away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.82 + FC Aarau defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.94

FC Aarau attack 1.56 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
48%
level
22%
FC Aarau scores more
30%

Neuchatel Xamax FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Neuchatel Xamax FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 90% of Neuchatel Xamax FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Neuchatel Xamax FC have scored in 7 games running
  • FC Aarau have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
WWLL
Aarau
LWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neuchatel Xamax FC face FC Aarau (Challenge League)

Challenge League returns with Neuchatel Xamax FC hosting FC Aarau. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.