Neretvanac Opuzen 1–1 RNK Split: Result & Stats

Neretvanac Opuzen

FT

1 – 1

RNK Split

10/18/2020

Third NL - Jug · South - 10Stadion Podvornica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Neretvanac Opuzen48%

×Draw25%

RNK Split27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neretvanac OpuzenExpected goals in this matchRNK Split

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.13

Neretvanac Opuzen

1.59

RNK Split

1.13

Neretvanac Opuzen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

1.56

creates per match

1.23

1.03

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Neretvanac Opuzen

1.56

RNK Split

1.23

allows per match

Neretvanac Opuzen

1.03

RNK Split

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par

RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretvanac Opuzen ↓

RNK Split →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Neretvanac Opuzen or draw

73%

Neretvanac Opuzen or RNK Split

75%

Draw or RNK Split

52%

Winning margin

Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+

25%

RNK Split wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals

80%

Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals

47%

Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals

21%

RNK Split 1+ goals

68%

RNK Split 2+ goals

31%

RNK Split 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)

64%

RNK Split (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretvanac Opuzen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.56 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

RNK Split attack 1.23 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Neretvanac Opuzen scores more

48%

level

25%

RNK Split scores more

27%

Neretvanac Opuzen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Neretvanac Opuzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff