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Neretva Metković vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
FT
1 – 1
RNK Split
RNK Split
10/5/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 7Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Neretva Metković51%
×Draw24%
RNK Split25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretva Metković
1.71
RNK Split
1.14

Neretva Metković creates 50% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

creates per match

Neretva Metković
1.80
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

Neretva Metković
1.05
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw
75%
Neretva Metković or RNK Split
76%
Draw or RNK Split
49%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+
27%
RNK Split wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals
82%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
51%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
24%
RNK Split 1+ goals
68%
RNK Split 2+ goals
32%
RNK Split 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
67%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

RNK Split attack 1.23 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Neretva Metković scores more
51%
level
24%
RNK Split scores more
25%

Neretva Metković at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neretva Metković vs RNK Split

Neretva Metković and RNK Split drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Igralište Iza Vage in Metković.