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Neptūną Klaipėda vs Dainava — 1 Lyga 2026

Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Preview
12:00
Dainava
Dainava
11/8/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 30
43%
Neptūną Klaipėda
model favours
43%25%32%

Neptūną Klaipėda score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Neptūną Klaipėda43%
×Draw25%
Dainava32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.53
Dainava
1.29

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 19% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 45 away

creates per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.93
Dainava
1.53

allows per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.06
Dainava
1.13

finishing

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neptūną Klaipėda ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Neptūną Klaipėda or draw
68%
Neptūną Klaipėda or Dainava
75%
Draw or Dainava
57%

Winning margin

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
21%
Dainava wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
78%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
45%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
20%
Dainava 1+ goals
72%
Dainava 2+ goals
37%
Dainava 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
57%
Dainava (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neptūną Klaipėda at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 1.93 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Dainava attack 1.53 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
43%
level
25%
Dainava scores more
32%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dainava are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Dainava have scored in 11 games running
  • 50% of Dainava’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 67% of Dainava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Dainava win just 52% against the top half (vs 83% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Klaipėda
WDLWW
Dainava
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neptūną Klaipėda face Dainava (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga returns with Neptūną Klaipėda hosting Dainava. Match starts November 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.