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Neman vs Naftan — Premier League 2018

Neman
Neman
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Naftan
Naftan
12/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Stadyen Nyoman Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Neman55%
×Draw25%
Naftan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman
1.62
Naftan
0.89

Neman creates 82% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 51 away

creates per match

Neman
1.30
Naftan
0.94

allows per match

Neman
0.84
Naftan
1.94

finishing

Neman+0.00on par
Naftan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

Naftan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Neman or draw
79%
Neman or Naftan
75%
Draw or Naftan
45%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+
29%
Naftan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals
80%
Neman 2+ goals
48%
Neman 3+ goals
22%
Naftan 1+ goals
59%
Naftan 2+ goals
22%
Naftan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)
73%
Naftan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 127 matches

Naftan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.30 + Naftan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

Naftan attack 0.94 + Neman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Neman scores more
55%
level
25%
Naftan scores more
21%

Neman at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neman 6 – 1 Naftan

Neman beat Naftan 6-1 in Premier League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Nyoman Iskusstvennoe pole in Grodno.