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Neftchi vs Qizilqum — Super League 2026

Neftchi
Neftchi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Qizilqum
Qizilqum
11/23/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Stadion Istiqlol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Neftchi54%
×Draw26%
Qizilqum20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftchi
1.56
Qizilqum
0.84

Neftchi creates 86% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 100 away

creates per match

Neftchi
1.57
Qizilqum
0.73

allows per match

Neftchi
0.95
Qizilqum
1.55

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par
Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Qizilqum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw
80%
Neftchi or Qizilqum
74%
Draw or Qizilqum
46%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+
29%
Qizilqum wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals
79%
Neftchi 2+ goals
46%
Neftchi 3+ goals
21%
Qizilqum 1+ goals
57%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
21%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)
73%
Qizilqum (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 1.57 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Qizilqum attack 0.73 + Neftchi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Neftchi scores more
54%
level
26%
Qizilqum scores more
20%

Neftchi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neftchi vs Qizilqum

Neftchi beat Qizilqum 1-0 in Super League on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Istiqlol in Fergana.