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Necaxa vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
Preview
01:00
Puebla
Puebla
9/12/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Victoria
Big match
45%
Necaxa
model favours
45%26%30%
1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa45%
×Draw26%
Puebla30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.50
Puebla
1.18

Necaxa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 142 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Puebla
1.65

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
70%
Necaxa or Puebla
74%
Draw or Puebla
55%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
22%
Puebla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
78%
Necaxa 2+ goals
44%
Necaxa 3+ goals
19%
Puebla 1+ goals
69%
Puebla 2+ goals
33%
Puebla 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
60%
Puebla (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Puebla attack 1.05 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Necaxa scores more
45%
level
26%
Puebla scores more
30%

Necaxa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Necaxa
Direct / counter-attacking
Puebla
Balanced
44%Possession46%
76%Pass accuracy77%
13.9ShotsBiggest gap12.3
1.14xG1.09
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NecaxaPuebla

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Necaxa
3
Draws
2
Puebla
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 50%
0–01–01–04–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Necaxa
WDWW
Puebla
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Necaxa face Puebla (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Necaxa hosting Puebla. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Necaxa host Puebla at Estadio Victoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.