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Necaxa vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puebla
Puebla
E. Gularte 58' (OG)
G. Martínez 70'
4/15/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa45%
×Draw26%
Puebla30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.50
Puebla
1.18

Necaxa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 142 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Puebla
1.65

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
70%
Necaxa or Puebla
74%
Draw or Puebla
55%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
22%
Puebla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
78%
Necaxa 2+ goals
44%
Necaxa 3+ goals
19%
Puebla 1+ goals
69%
Puebla 2+ goals
33%
Puebla 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
60%
Puebla (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Puebla attack 1.05 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Necaxa scores more
45%
level
26%
Puebla scores more
30%

Necaxa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Édgar MéndezNecaxaNecaxa · F
8.0

Match Events

35'
Gustavo Ferrareis
42'
Fernando Madrigal
57'
Omar Fernández
58'
E. GularteOwn goal
61'
D. Batallini← H. Jurado
61'
R. Cortéz← F. Madrigal
61'
D. Álvarez← O. Fernández
61'
A. Herrera← Gustavo Ferrareis
61'
K. Ramírez← M. Barragán
70'
G. Martínez← P. González
70'
G. Martínez↳ L. García
75'
M. Silvera← R. Monreal
75'
J. Domínguez← B. Garnica
85'
Maximiliano Silvera
89'
J. Velasco← J. Van Rankin
90+2'
Á. Robles← F. Waller

Possession

54%Necaxa

Shots

16Necaxa

Pass accuracy

50%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaPuebla
Overview
54%Possession46%
16Total Shots18
7Corners1
10Fouls18
Shots
16Total Shots18
5On Target1
8Off Target13
3Blocked4
10Inside Box9
6Outside Box9
Passing
54%Possession46%
413Total Passes366
323Accurate Passes285
78%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls18
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides4

Liga MX: Necaxa 1–1 Puebla

Necaxa and Puebla drew 1-1 in Liga MX on April 15, 2023.

Goals: E. Gularte (58' o.g.), G. Martínez (70').

Necaxa controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.