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Necaxa vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puebla
Puebla
G. Martínez 87'
10/16/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa45%
×Draw26%
Puebla30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.50
Puebla
1.18

Necaxa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 142 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Puebla
1.65

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
70%
Necaxa or Puebla
74%
Draw or Puebla
55%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
22%
Puebla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
78%
Necaxa 2+ goals
44%
Necaxa 3+ goals
19%
Puebla 1+ goals
69%
Puebla 2+ goals
33%
Puebla 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
60%
Puebla (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Puebla attack 1.05 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Necaxa scores more
45%
level
26%
Puebla scores more
30%

Necaxa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
Lucas MaiaPueblaPuebla · D
8.5

Match Events

46'
A. Palma← S. Bareiro
46'
R. Aguirre← Jonathan Gónzalez
46'
G. Martínez← G. Corral
59'
M. Quiroga← L. García
60'
J. Escoboza← M. Salas
62'
D. Álvarez← P. Parra
85'
A. Herrera← M. Araújo
85'
D. De Buen← J. Salas
86'
F. Batista← A. Medina
87'
G. Martínez↳ D. Álvarez

Possession

61%Necaxa

Shots

14Necaxa

Pass accuracy

54%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaPuebla
Overview
61%Possession39%
14Total Shots16
4Corners4
19Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots16
3On Target6
4Off Target8
7Blocked2
13Inside Box12
1Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
434Total Passes279
359Accurate Passes199
83%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls8

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Puebla

Puebla beat Necaxa 1-0 in Liga MX on October 16, 2021.

Goals: G. Martínez (87').

Necaxa controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.