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Necaxa vs Club Tijuana — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
Preview
01:00
Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
11/7/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Victoria
Big match
50%
Necaxa
model favours
50%25%25%

Club Tijuana are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Necaxa50%
×Draw25%
Club Tijuana25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.64
Club Tijuana
1.09

Necaxa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 134 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Club Tijuana
0.88

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Club Tijuana
1.92

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Club Tijuana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
75%
Necaxa or Club Tijuana
75%
Draw or Club Tijuana
50%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
27%
Club Tijuana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
81%
Necaxa 2+ goals
49%
Necaxa 3+ goals
23%
Club Tijuana 1+ goals
66%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
30%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
66%
Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.92 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Club Tijuana defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.64

Club Tijuana attack 0.88 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Necaxa scores more
50%
level
25%
Club Tijuana scores more
25%

Necaxa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Club Tijuana score first in only 24% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • 31% of Club Tijuana’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Necaxa
Direct / counter-attacking
Club Tijuana
Balanced
43%PossessionBiggest gap49%
76%Pass accuracy81%
13.5Shots12.2
1.08xG1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NecaxaClub Tijuana

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Necaxa
4
Draws
3
Club Tijuana
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 80%
3–00–32–11–23–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Necaxa
WDWW
Tijuana
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana — Match Preview

Necaxa face Club Tijuana on November 7, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Necaxa host Club Tijuana at Estadio Victoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.