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Necaxa vs Club Tijuana — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 3
Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Necaxa52%
×Draw20%
Club Tijuana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
2.25
Club Tijuana
1.63

Necaxa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Necaxa
2.50
Club Tijuana
2.25

allows per match

Necaxa
1.00
Club Tijuana
2.00

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Club Tijuana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
72%
Necaxa or Club Tijuana
80%
Draw or Club Tijuana
48%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
31%
Club Tijuana wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
89%
Necaxa 2+ goals
65%
Necaxa 3+ goals
39%
Club Tijuana 1+ goals
80%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
48%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
65%
Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 2.50 + Club Tijuana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Club Tijuana attack 2.25 + Necaxa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Necaxa scores more
52%
level
20%
Club Tijuana scores more
28%

Necaxa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Necaxa 1–3 Club Tijuana

Club Tijuana beat Necaxa 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.