Necaxa 1–2 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Club Tijuana

B. Fernández 62'

G. Bou 90+5' (pen)

B. Beckeles 82' (OG)

2/24/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Necaxa64%

×Draw21%

Club Tijuana16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.91

Necaxa

2.05

Club Tijuana

0.91

Necaxa creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.71

creates per match

0.90

0.92

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Necaxa

1.71

Club Tijuana

0.90

allows per match

Necaxa

0.92

Club Tijuana

2.40

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Necaxa+0.29scores more

Club Tijuana+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

84%

Necaxa or Club Tijuana

79%

Draw or Club Tijuana

36%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

39%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

87%

Necaxa 2+ goals

61%

Necaxa 3+ goals

33%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

60%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

23%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

80%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.71 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.05

Club Tijuana attack 0.90 + Necaxa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Necaxa scores more

64%

level

21%

Club Tijuana scores more

16%

Necaxa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

G. Lajud

Club Tijuana · G

8.1

Match Events

28'

Ángel Sepúlveda

46'

R. Monreal← P. Campos

46'

E. Castillo← A. Nahuelpán

58'

R. Contreras← M. Barragán

62'

B. Fernández↳ F. Gallegos

72'

J. Cortés← A. Sepúlveda

80'

D. López← L. Fuentes

81'

D. González← I. Rivero

82'

B. BeckelesOwn goal

90'

Fernando Meza

90'

Jair Cortés

90+5'

G. BouPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaClub

Overview

46%Possession54%

21Total Shots9

6Corners1

18Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots9

8On Target4

8Off Target4

5Blocked1

13Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

397Total Passes484

307Accurate Passes385

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

18Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0