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NEC Nijmegen vs Twente — Eredivisie 2018

NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Twente
Twente
1/20/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 18Goffertstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

NEC Nijmegen43%
×Draw23%
Twente34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC Nijmegen
1.73
Twente
1.53

NEC Nijmegen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen
1.95
Twente
1.49

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen
1.57
Twente
1.50

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.15scores more
Twente+0.42scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

Twente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw
66%
NEC Nijmegen or Twente
77%
Draw or Twente
57%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
22%
Twente wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
82%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
52%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
25%
Twente 1+ goals
78%
Twente 2+ goals
45%
Twente 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
55%
Twente (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Twente away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.95 + Twente defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Twente attack 1.49 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more
43%
level
23%
Twente scores more
34%

NEC Nijmegen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEC Nijmegen vs Twente

NEC Nijmegen beat Twente 1-0 in Eredivisie on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Goffertstadion in Nijmegen.