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NEC Nijmegen vs SV Elversberg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
Preview
12:00
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
69%
NEC Nijmegen
model favours
69%15%16%

NEC Nijmegen have scored in 25 games running

brightest fact of this match

3–1
likely score
84%
over 2.5 goals
75%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

NEC Nijmegen69%
×Draw15%
SV Elversberg16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC Nijmegen
3.17
SV Elversberg
1.52

NEC Nijmegen creates 109% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen
4.00
SV Elversberg
2.33

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen
0.71
SV Elversberg
2.33

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.00on par
SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw
84%
NEC Nijmegen or SV Elversberg
85%
Draw or SV Elversberg
31%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
50%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
96%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
82%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
60%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
78%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
45%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
81%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 4.00 + SV Elversberg defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

SV Elversberg attack 2.33 + NEC Nijmegen defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more
69%
level
15%
SV Elversberg scores more
16%

NEC Nijmegen at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • NEC Nijmegen score first in only 24% of matches
  • 76% of NEC Nijmegen’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 78% of NEC Nijmegen’s matches
  • NEC Nijmegen and SV Elversberg have never met before
  • When NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 80% of the time

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Nijmegen
WWLLD
Elversberg
LDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: NEC Nijmegen host SV Elversberg

July 25, 2026: NEC Nijmegen take on SV Elversberg in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.