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NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles — Eredivisie 2018

NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
11/26/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 13Goffertstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

NEC Nijmegen58%
×Draw20%
GO Ahead Eagles22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC Nijmegen
2.22
GO Ahead Eagles
1.31

NEC Nijmegen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen
1.95
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen
1.57
GO Ahead Eagles
2.49

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.15scores more
GO Ahead Eagles+0.29scores more

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

GO Ahead Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw
78%
NEC Nijmegen or GO Ahead Eagles
80%
Draw or GO Ahead Eagles
42%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
36%
GO Ahead Eagles wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
89%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
65%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
38%
GO Ahead Eagles 1+ goals
73%
GO Ahead Eagles 2+ goals
38%
GO Ahead Eagles 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
72%
GO Ahead Eagles (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

GO Ahead Eagles away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.49 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.95 + GO Ahead Eagles defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.22

GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.06 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more
58%
level
20%
GO Ahead Eagles scores more
22%

NEC Nijmegen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles

NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Goffertstadion in Nijmegen.