NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Fortuna Sittard: Result & Stats

NEC Nijmegen

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Fortuna Sittard

12/15/2023

Eredivisie · Round 16Goffertstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

NEC Nijmegen55%

×Draw22%

Fortuna Sittard23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEC NijmegenExpected goals in this matchFortuna Sittard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.24

NEC Nijmegen

2.02

Fortuna Sittard

1.24

NEC Nijmegen creates 63% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.95

creates per match

0.90

1.57

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen

1.95

Fortuna Sittard

0.90

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen

1.57

Fortuna Sittard

2.10

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.15scores more

Fortuna Sittard+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

Fortuna Sittard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw

77%

NEC Nijmegen or Fortuna Sittard

78%

Draw or Fortuna Sittard

45%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+

33%

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals

87%

NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals

60%

NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals

33%

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals

71%

Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals

35%

Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)

70%

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Fortuna Sittard away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.10 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.95 + Fortuna Sittard defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.02

Fortuna Sittard attack 0.90 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more

55%

level

22%

Fortuna Sittard scores more

23%

NEC Nijmegen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff