NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Ajax: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ajax

12/3/2023

Eredivisie · Round 14Goffertstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

NEC Nijmegen49%

×Draw22%

Ajax29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEC NijmegenExpected goals in this matchAjax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.45

NEC Nijmegen

1.92

Ajax

1.45

NEC Nijmegen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.95

creates per match

1.32

1.57

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen

1.95

Ajax

1.32

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen

1.57

Ajax

1.88

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.15scores more

Ajax+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw

71%

NEC Nijmegen or Ajax

78%

Draw or Ajax

51%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+

27%

Ajax wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals

85%

NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals

57%

NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals

30%

Ajax 1+ goals

77%

Ajax 2+ goals

42%

Ajax 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)

62%

Ajax (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Ajax away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.95 + Ajax defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ajax attack 1.32 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more

49%

level

22%

Ajax scores more

29%

NEC Nijmegen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff