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Nebitci vs Merw — Ýokary Liga 2020

Nebitci
Nebitci
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Merw
Merw
3/4/2024Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 1Balkanabat Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Nebitci51%
×Draw25%
Merw25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nebitci
1.62
Merw
1.05

Nebitci creates 54% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nebitci
1.11
Merw
0.73

allows per match

Nebitci
1.38
Merw
2.12

finishing

Nebitci+0.00on par
Merw+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nebitci ↓

Merw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nebitci or draw
75%
Nebitci or Merw
75%
Draw or Merw
49%

Winning margin

Nebitci wins by 2+
27%
Merw wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nebitci 1+ goals
80%
Nebitci 2+ goals
48%
Nebitci 3+ goals
22%
Merw 1+ goals
65%
Merw 2+ goals
28%
Merw 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nebitci (draw refunded)
67%
Merw (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nebitci at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.38 · 82 matches

Merw away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.12 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nebitci attack 1.11 + Merw defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.62

Merw attack 0.73 + Nebitci defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nebitci scores more
51%
level
25%
Merw scores more
25%

Nebitci at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nebitci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Nebitci 0–1 Merw

Merw beat Nebitci 1-0 in Ýokary Liga on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Balkanabat Stadiony in Balkanabat.