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Nebitci vs Aşgabat — Ýokary Liga 2020

Nebitci
Nebitci
FT
1 – 0
Aşgabat
Aşgabat
9/22/2024Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 25Balkanabat Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Nebitci47%
×Draw25%
Aşgabat28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nebitci
1.56
Aşgabat
1.15

Nebitci creates 36% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 80 away

creates per match

Nebitci
1.11
Aşgabat
0.91

allows per match

Nebitci
1.38
Aşgabat
2.02

finishing

Nebitci+0.00on par
Aşgabat+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nebitci ↓

Aşgabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nebitci or draw
72%
Nebitci or Aşgabat
75%
Draw or Aşgabat
53%

Winning margin

Nebitci wins by 2+
24%
Aşgabat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nebitci 1+ goals
79%
Nebitci 2+ goals
46%
Nebitci 3+ goals
21%
Aşgabat 1+ goals
68%
Aşgabat 2+ goals
32%
Aşgabat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nebitci (draw refunded)
62%
Aşgabat (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nebitci at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.38 · 82 matches

Aşgabat away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nebitci attack 1.11 + Aşgabat defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aşgabat attack 0.91 + Nebitci defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nebitci scores more
47%
level
25%
Aşgabat scores more
28%

Nebitci at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nebitci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Nebitci 1–0 Aşgabat

Nebitci beat Aşgabat 1-0 in Ýokary Liga on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Balkanabat Stadiony in Balkanabat.