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Nebitci vs Ahal — Ýokary Liga 2020

Nebitci
Nebitci
FT
0 – 1
Ahal
Ahal
4/6/2024Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 6Balkanabat Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Nebitci25%
×Draw24%
Ahal50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nebitci
1.12
Ahal
1.68

Ahal creates 50% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 83 away

creates per match

Nebitci
1.11
Ahal
1.98

allows per match

Nebitci
1.38
Ahal
1.12

finishing

Nebitci+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nebitci ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nebitci or draw
50%
Nebitci or Ahal
76%
Draw or Ahal
75%

Winning margin

Nebitci wins by 2+
10%
Ahal wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Nebitci 1+ goals
67%
Nebitci 2+ goals
31%
Nebitci 3+ goals
10%
Ahal 1+ goals
81%
Ahal 2+ goals
50%
Ahal 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Nebitci (draw refunded)
34%
Ahal (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nebitci at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.38 · 82 matches

Ahal away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nebitci attack 1.11 + Ahal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Ahal attack 1.98 + Nebitci defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nebitci scores more
25%
level
24%
Ahal scores more
50%

Ahal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nebitci vs Ahal

Ahal beat Nebitci 1-0 in Ýokary Liga on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Balkanabat Stadiony in Balkanabat.