Náxara 3–2 Comillas: Result & Stats

Náxara

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Comillas

10/27/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 10Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Náxara68%

×Draw19%

Comillas13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NáxaraExpected goals in this matchComillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.88

Náxara

2.25

Comillas

0.88

Náxara creates 156% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 96 away

2.56

creates per match

1.06

0.69

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Náxara

2.56

Comillas

1.06

allows per match

Náxara

0.69

Comillas

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par

Comillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Comillas →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Náxara or draw

87%

Náxara or Comillas

81%

Draw or Comillas

32%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+

45%

Comillas wins by 2+

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals

89%

Náxara 2+ goals

65%

Náxara 3+ goals

39%

Comillas 1+ goals

59%

Comillas 2+ goals

22%

Comillas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)

84%

Comillas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Comillas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.93 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Comillas defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.25

Comillas attack 1.06 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Náxara scores more

68%

level

19%

Comillas scores more

13%

Náxara at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff