Navy FC 1–0 Pattaya United: Result & Stats

Navy FC

FT

1 – 0

Pattaya United

10/18/2014

Thai League 2 · Round 32Sattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Navy FC44%

×Draw27%

Pattaya United29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Navy FCExpected goals in this matchPattaya United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.07

Navy FC

1.37

Pattaya United

1.07

Navy FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 44 away

1.08

creates per match

0.84

1.30

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Navy FC

1.08

Pattaya United

0.84

allows per match

Navy FC

1.30

Pattaya United

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Pattaya United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw

71%

Navy FC or Pattaya United

73%

Draw or Pattaya United

56%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+

21%

Pattaya United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals

75%

Navy FC 2+ goals

40%

Navy FC 3+ goals

16%

Pattaya United 1+ goals

66%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

29%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)

60%

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.08 + Pattaya United defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.37

Pattaya United attack 0.84 + Navy FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Navy FC scores more

44%

level

27%

Pattaya United scores more

29%

Navy FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Navy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff