Navbahor 1–0 Qizilqum: Result & Stats

Navbahor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Qizilqum

A. Akhmedov 50' (pen)

7/13/2020

Super League · Round 9Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Navbahor55%

×Draw27%

Qizilqum18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavbahorExpected goals in this matchQizilqum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.70

Navbahor

1.44

Qizilqum

0.70

Navbahor creates 106% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 97 away

1.33

creates per match

0.71

0.68

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Navbahor

1.33

Qizilqum

0.71

allows per match

Navbahor

0.68

Qizilqum

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par

Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Qizilqum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw

82%

Navbahor or Qizilqum

73%

Draw or Qizilqum

45%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+

28%

Qizilqum wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals

76%

Navbahor 2+ goals

42%

Navbahor 3+ goals

18%

Qizilqum 1+ goals

50%

Qizilqum 2+ goals

16%

Qizilqum 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)

75%

Qizilqum (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.68 · 96 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.55 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.33 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Qizilqum attack 0.71 + Navbahor defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Navbahor scores more

55%

level

27%

Qizilqum scores more

18%

Navbahor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Y. Wezirgeldi

46'

Z. Urinboev← I. Rashidkhanov

48'

K. Nurmetov

50'

A. AkhmedovPenalty

58'

M. Gofurov

63'

G. Komilov← M. Gofurov

63'

I. Isoqjonov← A. Gulomov

66'

S. Abdullajonov← M. Naweseb

74'

R. Margiyev

74'

S. Mahmudxojiyev← R. Bolov

79'

V. Shodiev← V. Ylyasov

83'

P. Golyshev← J. Ibrokhimov

86'

R. Margiyev

86'

R. Margiyev

Navbahor

Qizilqum

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Kanchelskis

46'▲Z. Urinboev←▼I. Rashidkhanov

63'▲G. Komilov←▼M. Gofurov

63'▲I. Isoqjonov←▼A. Gulomov

74'▲S. Mahmudxojiyev←▼R. Bolov

83'▲P. Golyshev←▼J. Ibrokhimov

Navbahor substitutes

UrinboevKomilovIsoqjonovMahmudxojiyevGolyshevJuraboevXamroevTelyakovLokaev

Manager: Y. Lukin

66'▲S. Abdullajonov←▼M. Naweseb

79'▲V. Shodiev←▼V. Ylyasov

Qizilqum substitutes

AbdullajonovShodievAlijanovAbdualimovOlimovQosimovKamolovMatnyazov