Navbahor 1–1 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Navbahor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pakhtakor

A. Turgunboev 73'

I. Sergeev 12'

9/1/2020

Super League · Round 14Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Navbahor32%

×Draw28%

Pakhtakor40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavbahorExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.27

Navbahor

1.10

Pakhtakor

1.27

Pakhtakor creates 15% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 99 away

1.33

creates per match

1.85

0.68

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Navbahor

1.33

Pakhtakor

1.85

allows per match

Navbahor

0.68

Pakhtakor

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw

60%

Navbahor or Pakhtakor

72%

Draw or Pakhtakor

68%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+

13%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals

67%

Navbahor 2+ goals

30%

Navbahor 3+ goals

10%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

72%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

36%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)

44%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.68 · 96 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.88 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.33 + Pakhtakor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Navbahor defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Navbahor scores more

32%

level

28%

Pakhtakor scores more

40%

Pakhtakor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

I. Sergeev

46'

I. Isoqjonov← A. Gulomov

46'

K. Mukhtarov← T. Shamsiddinov

52'

A. Ismailov

54'

I. Golban

57'

D. Khamdamov

67'

R. Bolov← P. Golyshev

73'

A. Turgunboev

74'

J. Sidikov← D. Khamdamov

80'

E. Derdiyok← I. Sergeev

81'

O. Khamrobekov

83'

A. Bakhritdinov← I. Solovyev

83'

I. Rashidkhanov← Z. Urinboev

Navbahor

Pakhtakor

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Kanchelskis

46'▲I. Isoqjonov←▼A. Gulomov

46'▲K. Mukhtarov←▼T. Shamsiddinov

67'▲R. Bolov←▼P. Golyshev

83'▲A. Bakhritdinov←▼I. Solovyev

83'▲I. Rashidkhanov←▼Z. Urinboev

Navbahor substitutes

IsoqjonovMukhtarovBolovBakhritdinovRashidkhanovErgashboyevAbdullakhonovTojiddinovGofurov

Manager: S. Arveladze

74'▲J. Sidikov←▼D. Khamdamov

80'▲E. Derdiyok←▼I. Sergeev

Pakhtakor substitutes

SidikovDerdiyokIsaqovKomilovSalimovAbdullaevAzamovKuvvatovKozak

Super League: Navbahor 1–1 Pakhtakor

Navbahor and Pakhtakor drew 1-1 in Super League on September 1, 2020.

Goals: I. Sergeev (12'), A. Turgunboev (73').

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Namangan.

Navbahor vs Pakhtakor — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Navbahor 1–1 Pakhtakor