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Navbahor vs Kokand-1912 — Super League 2026

Navbahor
Navbahor
Preview
16:00
Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
12/2/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Markaziy Stadium
Big match
53%
Navbahor
model favours
53%27%20%

Kokand-1912 win just 9% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Navbahor53%
×Draw27%
Kokand-191220%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navbahor
1.46
Kokand-1912
0.78

Navbahor creates 87% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 72 away

creates per match

Navbahor
1.33
Kokand-1912
0.88

allows per match

Navbahor
0.68
Kokand-1912
1.58

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par
Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Kokand-1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw
80%
Navbahor or Kokand-1912
73%
Draw or Kokand-1912
47%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+
27%
Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals
77%
Navbahor 2+ goals
43%
Navbahor 3+ goals
18%
Kokand-1912 1+ goals
54%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
18%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)
73%
Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.68 · 96 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.33 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Navbahor defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Navbahor scores more
53%
level
27%
Kokand-1912 scores more
20%

Navbahor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Navbahor sit 3, Kokand-1912 15 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Navbahor
DLDLD
Kokand-1912
LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Navbahor face Kokand-1912 (Super League)

Super League returns with Navbahor hosting Kokand-1912. Match starts December 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Navbahor host Kokand-1912 at Markaziy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.