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Navarro vs Mosconia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Navarro
Navarro
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mosconia
Mosconia
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Tabiella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Navarro39%
×Draw29%
Mosconia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navarro
1.18
Mosconia
1.06

Navarro creates 11% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 83 away

creates per match

Navarro
1.05
Mosconia
1.04

allows per match

Navarro
1.09
Mosconia
1.30

finishing

Navarro+0.00on par
Mosconia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navarro ↓

Mosconia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Navarro or draw
67%
Navarro or Mosconia
71%
Draw or Mosconia
61%

Winning margin

Navarro wins by 2+
16%
Mosconia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Navarro 1+ goals
69%
Navarro 2+ goals
33%
Navarro 3+ goals
12%
Mosconia 1+ goals
65%
Mosconia 2+ goals
29%
Mosconia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Navarro (draw refunded)
54%
Mosconia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navarro at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Mosconia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navarro attack 1.05 + Mosconia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mosconia attack 1.04 + Navarro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Navarro scores more
39%
level
29%
Mosconia scores more
33%

Navarro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Navarro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Navarro 2–1 Mosconia

Navarro beat Mosconia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Tabiella in Avilés.