Navalcarnero 2–0 Leganés II: Result & Stats

Navalcarnero

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Leganés II

Lozano 41'

De Miguel 30'

9/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Navalcarnero42%

×Draw25%

Leganés II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavalcarneroExpected goals in this matchLeganés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.38

Navalcarnero

1.56

Leganés II

1.38

Navalcarnero creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

1.80

creates per match

1.89

0.87

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Navalcarnero

1.80

Leganés II

1.89

allows per match

Navalcarnero

0.87

Leganés II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navalcarnero+0.00on par

Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navalcarnero ↓

Leganés II →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Navalcarnero or draw

66%

Navalcarnero or Leganés II

75%

Draw or Leganés II

58%

Winning margin

Navalcarnero wins by 2+

21%

Leganés II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals

79%

Navalcarnero 2+ goals

46%

Navalcarnero 3+ goals

21%

Leganés II 1+ goals

75%

Leganés II 2+ goals

40%

Leganés II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)

55%

Leganés II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Navalcarnero at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Navalcarnero attack 1.80 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Navalcarnero defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Navalcarnero scores more

42%

level

25%

Leganés II scores more

34%

Navalcarnero at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

De Miguel

41'

Lozano

49'

Dani Plomer← A. Mourid

49'

Nacho Heras← Alex Sancris

52'

Hakim El Mokh← David Rodríguez

71'

Sergio Sánchez← Ale Soler

79'

Rubén Sánchez← Juan Esnáider

86'

José Antonio← Jorge Borona

Navalcarnero

Leganés

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Luis Ayllón

52'▲Hakim El Mokh←▼David Rodríguez

79'▲Rubén Sánchez←▼Juan Esnáider

86'▲José Antonio←▼Jorge Borona

Navalcarnero substitutes

MokhSánchezAntonio

Manager: Luis Cembranos

49'▲Dani Plomer←▼A. Mourid

49'▲Nacho Heras←▼Alex Sancris

71'▲Sergio Sánchez←▼Ale Soler

Leganés II substitutes

PlomerHerasSánchez

Match Recap: Navalcarnero vs Leganés II

Navalcarnero beat Leganés II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 29, 2019.

Goals: De Miguel (30'), Lozano (41').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Mariano González in Navalcarnero.

Navalcarnero vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Navalcarnero vs Leganés II