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Naval vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Naval
Naval
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Campo de San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Naval41%
×Draw30%
Siete Villas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naval
1.16
Siete Villas
0.94

Naval creates 23% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 91 away

creates per match

Naval
1.05
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Naval
0.89
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Naval+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naval ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naval or draw
70%
Naval or Siete Villas
70%
Draw or Siete Villas
59%

Winning margin

Naval wins by 2+
17%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naval 1+ goals
69%
Naval 2+ goals
32%
Naval 3+ goals
11%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
61%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
24%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Naval (draw refunded)
58%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naval at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 64 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naval attack 1.05 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Naval defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Naval scores more
41%
level
30%
Siete Villas scores more
30%

Naval at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Naval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naval vs Siete Villas

Naval beat Siete Villas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de San Francisco in Reinosa.