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Natters vs Mils — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Natters
Natters
FT
3 – 3
Mils
Mils
10/24/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 13Chairman-Arena Natters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Natters46%
×Draw20%
Mils33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Natters
2.23
Mils
1.88

Natters creates 19% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 70 away

creates per match

Natters
1.93
Mils
1.91

allows per match

Natters
1.84
Mils
2.54

finishing

Natters+0.00on par
Mils+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Natters ↓

Mils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Natters or draw
67%
Natters or Mils
80%
Draw or Mils
54%

Winning margin

Natters wins by 2+
27%
Mils wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Natters 1+ goals
89%
Natters 2+ goals
65%
Natters 3+ goals
38%
Mils 1+ goals
85%
Mils 2+ goals
56%
Mils 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Natters (draw refunded)
58%
Mils (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Natters at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.84 · 44 matches

Mils away — creates 1.91, concedes 2.54 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Natters attack 1.93 + Mils defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.23

Mils attack 1.91 + Natters defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Natters scores more
46%
level
20%
Mils scores more
33%

Natters at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Natters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Natters 3 – 3 Mils

Natters and Mils drew 3-3 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Chairman-Arena Natters in Natters.