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Nations vs Bechem United — Premier League 2019

Nations
Nations
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bechem United
Bechem United
A. Boateng Afriyie 18'
E. Abban 45+2'
6/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nations57%
×Draw26%
Bechem United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nations
1.50
Bechem United
0.69

Nations creates 117% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

creates per match

Nations
1.43
Bechem United
0.82

allows per match

Nations
0.57
Bechem United
1.56

finishing

Nations+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nations ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nations or draw
83%
Nations or Bechem United
74%
Draw or Bechem United
43%

Winning margin

Nations wins by 2+
30%
Bechem United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nations 1+ goals
78%
Nations 2+ goals
44%
Nations 3+ goals
19%
Bechem United 1+ goals
50%
Bechem United 2+ goals
15%
Bechem United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nations (draw refunded)
77%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nations at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 51 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.56 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nations attack 1.43 + Bechem United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Nations defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nations scores more
57%
level
26%
Bechem United scores more
17%

Nations at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nations will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. Boateng Afriyie
25'
45+2'
E. Abban
58'
58'
62'
64'
90'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nations vs Bechem United

Nations and Bechem United drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 9, 2024.

Goals: A. Boateng Afriyie (18'), E. Abban (45+2').

The match was played at Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex in Abrankese.