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Naters vs Terre Sainte — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Naters
Naters
FT
1 – 0
Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
8/21/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Sportanlage Stapfen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Naters52%
×Draw22%
Terre Sainte26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naters
1.97
Terre Sainte
1.33

Naters creates 48% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 57 away

creates per match

Naters
1.77
Terre Sainte
1.23

allows per match

Naters
1.44
Terre Sainte
2.16

finishing

Naters+0.00on par
Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naters ↓

Terre Sainte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Naters or draw
74%
Naters or Terre Sainte
78%
Draw or Terre Sainte
48%

Winning margin

Naters wins by 2+
30%
Terre Sainte wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Naters 1+ goals
86%
Naters 2+ goals
58%
Naters 3+ goals
31%
Terre Sainte 1+ goals
74%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
38%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Naters (draw refunded)
67%
Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naters at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naters attack 1.77 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.97

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Naters defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Naters scores more
52%
level
22%
Terre Sainte scores more
26%

Naters at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Naters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naters vs Terre Sainte

Naters beat Terre Sainte 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Stapfen in Naters.