Nashville SC 1–1 CF Montreal: Result & Stats

Nashville SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CF Montreal

6/27/2021

Major League Soccer · Round 14Nissan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Nashville SC46%

×Draw25%

CF Montreal30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nashville SCExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.25

Nashville SC

1.61

CF Montreal

1.25

Nashville SC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

1.47

creates per match

1.39

1.11

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Nashville SC

1.47

CF Montreal

1.39

allows per match

Nashville SC

1.11

CF Montreal

1.76

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Nashville SC+0.66scores more

CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville SC ↓

CF Montreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nashville SC or draw

70%

Nashville SC or CF Montreal

75%

Draw or CF Montreal

54%

Winning margin

Nashville SC wins by 2+

23%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nashville SC 1+ goals

80%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

48%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

22%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

71%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

36%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

61%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville SC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 15 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville SC attack 1.47 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Nashville SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nashville SC scores more

46%

level

25%

CF Montreal scores more

30%

Nashville SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nashville SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff