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Nasarawa United vs Warri Wolves — NPFL 2019

Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
FT
1 – 2
Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
A. Lawal 73' (pen)
A. Charles 90+1', 20'
1/20/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 16Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Nasarawa United60%
×Draw25%
Warri Wolves15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasarawa United
1.61
Warri Wolves
0.67

Nasarawa United creates 140% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nasarawa United
1.57
Warri Wolves
0.67

allows per match

Nasarawa United
0.66
Warri Wolves
1.65

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par
Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Warri Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw
85%
Nasarawa United or Warri Wolves
75%
Draw or Warri Wolves
40%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+
33%
Warri Wolves wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals
80%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
48%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
22%
Warri Wolves 1+ goals
49%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
15%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
80%
Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Warri Wolves away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.65 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Warri Wolves defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Warri Wolves attack 0.67 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nasarawa United scores more
60%
level
25%
Warri Wolves scores more
15%

Nasarawa United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
A. Charles
38'
S. Chidi← S. Chidi
44'
O. Olalere
53'
E. Ogbole← E. Ogbole
65'
E. Yarhere← E. Yarhere
73'
A. LawalPenalty
75'
A. Mohammed
79'
R. Agbabiaka← R. Agbabiaka
80'
D. Maigishiri← D. Maigishiri
86'
J. Abah← J. Abah
90+1'
A. Charles

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Nasarawa United 1–2 Warri Wolves

Warri Wolves beat Nasarawa United 2-1 in NPFL on January 20, 2020.

Goals: A. Charles (20', 90+1'), A. Lawal (73' pen).

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.