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Nasaf vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Nasaf
Nasaf
Preview
15:00
Neftchi
Neftchi
9/4/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Markaziy Stadium
Big match
41%
Nasaf
model favours
41%29%30%

Neftchi win just 34% against the top half (vs 65% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Nasaf41%
×Draw29%
Neftchi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
1.21
Neftchi
0.98

Nasaf creates 23% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 61 away

creates per match

Nasaf
1.62
Neftchi
1.31

allows per match

Nasaf
0.65
Neftchi
0.79

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
70%
Nasaf or Neftchi
71%
Draw or Neftchi
59%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
18%
Neftchi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
70%
Nasaf 2+ goals
34%
Nasaf 3+ goals
12%
Neftchi 1+ goals
62%
Neftchi 2+ goals
26%
Neftchi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
58%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.65 · 98 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.62 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.21

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Nasaf defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nasaf scores more
41%
level
29%
Neftchi scores more
30%

Nasaf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Nasaf
DWDDL
Neftchi
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nasaf host Neftchi

September 4, 2026: Nasaf take on Neftchi in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nasaf host Neftchi at Markaziy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.