Nasaf 1–1 Metalourg: Result & Stats | Super League

Nasaf

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metalourg

H. Norchayev 80'

A. Toshkuziev 89'

3/9/2022

Super League · Round 2Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Nasaf52%

×Draw27%

Metalourg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NasafExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.83

Nasaf

1.45

Metalourg

0.83

Nasaf creates 75% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 83 away

1.62

creates per match

1.02

0.65

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Nasaf

1.62

Metalourg

1.02

allows per match

Nasaf

0.65

Metalourg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw

78%

Nasaf or Metalourg

73%

Draw or Metalourg

48%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+

26%

Metalourg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals

77%

Nasaf 2+ goals

42%

Nasaf 3+ goals

18%

Metalourg 1+ goals

56%

Metalourg 2+ goals

20%

Metalourg 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)

71%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.65 · 98 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.62 + Metalourg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Metalourg attack 1.02 + Nasaf defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nasaf scores more

52%

level

27%

Metalourg scores more

22%

Nasaf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

K. Norchaev

46'

D. Temirov← S. Norbekov

65'

J. Kholturayev← F. Musaev

71'

S. Muhitdinov← M. Stanojević

71'

S. Smajlagić← S. Nurulloyev

78'

K. Sattarov← I. Ibragimov

80'

84'

84'

85'

89'

A. Davronov← B. Abdurahimov

89'

S. Akramov← H. Norchayev

89'

A. Toshkuziev

90+4'

S. Nematjonov← Z. Urinboev

Nasaf

Metalourg

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Norchayev

Manager: R. Berdyev

71'▲S. Muhitdinov←▼M. Stanojević

71'▲S. Smajlagić←▼S. Nurulloyev

89'▲A. Davronov←▼B. Abdurahimov

89'▲S. Akramov←▼H. Norchayev

Nasaf substitutes

MuhitdinovSmajlagićDavronovAkramovNe'matovSoyibovSolovjevRahmatovSadullayev

Manager: Luisma Hernández

46'▲D. Temirov←▼S. Norbekov

65'▲J. Kholturayev←▼F. Musaev

78'▲K. Sattarov←▼I. Ibragimov

90+4'▲S. Nematjonov←▼Z. Urinboev

Metalourg substitutes

TemirovKholturayevSattarovNematjonovOrtikovIsmoilovA'lamkhonovGofurbekovAbdullayev