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Nasaf vs Bunyodkor — Super League 2026

Nasaf
Nasaf
Preview
15:00
Bunyodkor
Bunyodkor
9/9/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Markaziy Stadium
Big match
49%
Nasaf
model favours
49%26%25%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Nasaf49%
×Draw26%
Bunyodkor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
1.49
Bunyodkor
0.97

Nasaf creates 54% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 96 away

creates per match

Nasaf
1.62
Bunyodkor
1.29

allows per match

Nasaf
0.65
Bunyodkor
1.36

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Bunyodkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
75%
Nasaf or Bunyodkor
74%
Draw or Bunyodkor
51%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
25%
Bunyodkor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
77%
Nasaf 2+ goals
44%
Nasaf 3+ goals
19%
Bunyodkor 1+ goals
62%
Bunyodkor 2+ goals
25%
Bunyodkor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
67%
Bunyodkor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.65 · 98 matches

Bunyodkor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.62 + Bunyodkor defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bunyodkor attack 1.29 + Nasaf defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nasaf scores more
49%
level
26%
Bunyodkor scores more
25%

Nasaf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Nasaf
DWDDL
Bunyodkor
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nasaf host Bunyodkor

September 9, 2026: Nasaf take on Bunyodkor in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nasaf host Bunyodkor at Markaziy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.