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Nart Cherkessk vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Nart Cherkessk
Nart Cherkessk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
8/3/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Nart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nart Cherkessk35%
×Draw29%
Kuban Kholding36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nart Cherkessk
1.12
Kuban Kholding
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 91 away

creates per match

Nart Cherkessk
1.27
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Nart Cherkessk
0.90
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nart Cherkessk ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nart Cherkessk or draw
64%
Nart Cherkessk or Kuban Kholding
71%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
65%

Winning margin

Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+
14%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals
67%
Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals
31%
Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals
10%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
68%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
31%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)
50%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nart Cherkessk at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.27 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Nart Cherkessk defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nart Cherkessk scores more
35%
level
29%
Kuban Kholding scores more
36%

Kuban Kholding at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Nart Cherkessk 0–0 Kuban Kholding

Nart Cherkessk and Kuban Kholding drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Nart in Cherkessk.