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Napredak vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2026

Napredak
Napredak
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
3/7/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 24Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Napredak33%
×Draw26%
TSC Backa Topola41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napredak
1.21
TSC Backa Topola
1.38

TSC Backa Topola creates 14% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 125 away

creates per match

Napredak
1.10
TSC Backa Topola
1.54

allows per match

Napredak
1.21
TSC Backa Topola
1.31

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Napredak or draw
59%
Napredak or TSC Backa Topola
74%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
67%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+
14%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals
70%
Napredak 2+ goals
34%
Napredak 3+ goals
12%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
75%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
40%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)
45%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 145 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.54 + Napredak defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Napredak scores more
33%
level
26%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
41%

TSC Backa Topola at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Napredak vs TSC Backa Topola

Napredak and TSC Backa Topola drew 0-0 in Super Liga on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.