Napoli 3–2 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.98

Napoli

1.59

Udinese

0.98

Napoli creates 62% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

1.61

creates per match

1.05

0.90

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Napoli

1.61

Udinese

1.05

allows per match

Napoli

0.90

Udinese

1.57

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Napoli+0.08on par

Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

77%

Napoli or Udinese

75%

Draw or Udinese

48%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

27%

Udinese wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

80%

Napoli 2+ goals

47%

Napoli 3+ goals

21%

Udinese 1+ goals

62%

Udinese 2+ goals

26%

Udinese 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

69%

Udinese (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.61 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.59

Udinese attack 1.05 + Napoli defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Napoli scores more

52%

level

25%

Udinese scores more

23%

Napoli at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

E. Elmas

Napoli · F

8.3

Match Events

15'

25'

26'

27'

31'

P. Zieliński↳ H. Lozano

37'

Roberto Pereyra

46'

Mário Rui← M. Olivera

56'

L. Samardžić← T. Arslan

58'

E. Elmas↳ A. Zambo Anguissa

60'

L. Østigård← Juan Jesus

60'

M. Politano← H. Lozano

67'

T. Ndombélé← P. Zieliński

71'

I. Nestorovski← Beto

71'

M. Jajalo← Walace

78'

Mário Rui

79'

I. Nestorovski↳ I. Success

82'

L. Samardžić

84'

Enzo Ebosse

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliUdinese

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots10

5Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target4

5Off Target2

5Blocked4

12Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

643Total Passes367

552Accurate Passes295

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Serie A: Napoli 3–2 Udinese

Napoli beat Udinese 3-2 in Serie A on November 12, 2022.

Goals: V. Osimhen (15'), P. Zieliński (31'), E. Elmas (58'), I. Nestorovski (79'), L. Samardžić (82').

Napoli controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli.

Napoli vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Napoli 3–2 Udinese