Napoli 2–1 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Napoli

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Udinese

V. Osimhen 63', 52'

Deulofeu 22'

3/19/2022

Serie A · Round 30Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Napoli52%

×Draw25%

Udinese23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.98

Napoli

1.59

Udinese

0.98

Napoli creates 62% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

1.61

creates per match

1.05

0.90

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Napoli

1.61

Udinese

1.05

allows per match

Napoli

0.90

Udinese

1.57

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Napoli+0.08on par

Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

77%

Napoli or Udinese

75%

Draw or Udinese

48%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

27%

Udinese wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

80%

Napoli 2+ goals

47%

Napoli 3+ goals

21%

Udinese 1+ goals

62%

Udinese 2+ goals

26%

Udinese 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

69%

Udinese (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.61 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.59

Udinese attack 1.05 + Napoli defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Napoli scores more

52%

level

25%

Udinese scores more

23%

Napoli at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

V. Osimhen

Napoli · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

Deulofeu↳ R. Pereyra

45+2'

Marvin Zeegelaar

46'

D. Mertens← Fabián Ruiz

50'

Iyenoma Udogie

52'

V. Osimhen↳ Mário Rui

63'

V. Osimhen↳ G. Di Lorenzo

65'

Amir Rrahmani

67'

I. Pussetto← Beto

70'

P. Zieliński← M. Politano

76'

L. Samardžić← J. Makengo

76'

B. Soppy← N. Molina

78'

A. Zanoli← G. Di Lorenzo

82'

Pablo Marí

87'

M. Jajalo← R. Pereyra

88'

E. Elmas← L. Insigne

90+2'

Victor Osimhen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliUdinese

Overview

64%Possession36%

20Total Shots10

7Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots10

8On Target3

8Off Target1

4Blocked6

11Inside Box5

9Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

582Total Passes331

501Accurate Passes255

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2