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Napoli vs Torino — Serie A 2026

Napoli
Napoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torino
Torino
12/23/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Napoli49%
×Draw27%
Torino24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
1.46
Torino
0.94

Napoli creates 55% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 31 away

creates per match

Napoli
1.62
Torino
1.01

allows per match

Napoli
0.87
Torino
1.30

finishing

Napoli+0.09on par
Torino-0.01on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Torino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
76%
Napoli or Torino
73%
Draw or Torino
51%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
24%
Torino wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
77%
Napoli 2+ goals
43%
Napoli 3+ goals
18%
Torino 1+ goals
61%
Torino 2+ goals
24%
Torino 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
67%
Torino (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.87 · 41 matches

Torino away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.62 + Torino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Torino attack 1.01 + Napoli defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Napoli scores more
49%
level
27%
Torino scores more
24%

Napoli at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Napoli 1–1 Torino

Napoli and Torino drew 1-1 in Serie A on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli.