Napoli 2–0 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Napoli

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sassuolo

Allan 90+3'

E. Hysaj 8'

7/25/2020

Serie A · Round 36Stadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Napoli51%

×Draw25%

Sassuolo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.07

Napoli

1.65

Sassuolo

1.07

Napoli creates 54% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

1.64

creates per match

1.23

0.91

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Napoli

1.64

Sassuolo

1.23

allows per match

Napoli

0.91

Sassuolo

1.66

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Napoli+0.11scores more

Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

75%

Napoli or Sassuolo

75%

Draw or Sassuolo

49%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

27%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

81%

Napoli 2+ goals

49%

Napoli 3+ goals

23%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

66%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

29%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

67%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 36 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.66 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.64 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Napoli defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Napoli scores more

51%

level

25%

Sassuolo scores more

25%

Napoli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Elseid Hysaj

Napoli · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

E. Hysaj↳ P. Zielinski

37'

D. Goal Disallowed - offside40'Berardi

46'

M. Muldur← J. Toljan

49'

K. Manolas← N. Maksimovic

61'

A. Milik← D. Mertens

67'

J. Callejon← M. Politano

68'

F. Djuricic

70'

D. Mertens

73'

H. Traore← G. Raspadori

74'

Marlon

79'

P. Zielinski← E. Elmas

79'

F. Ruiz← Allan

83'

M. Locatelli← G. Kyriakopoulos

83'

F. Djuricic← L. Haraslin

88'

Rogerio← G. Manzari

90+3'

Allan↳ D. Mertens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliSassuolo

Overview

50%Possession50%

21Total Shots7

7Corners4

4Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots7

8On Target2

8Off Target3

5Blocked2

12Inside Box3

9Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

488Total Passes491

430Accurate Passes430

88%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

4Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides6